Target Price Playground
NVDA
$188.63
๐ข
NVDA IV: 43.2% โ LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 58.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.63 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.2 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $205 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$817 (4.2%) on $19,683 risked, vs +$1,637 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $205 by Jun 19
+$817
+4.2% on $19,683 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,683
Put floors you at $180
Break-even
$196.83
+4.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.39 / -8.99 / 30.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$1,523 | -$1,615 | -$1,690 | -$1,683 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,276 | -$1,424 | -$1,588 | -$1,683 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$925 | -$1,116 | -$1,361 | -$1,683 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$464 | -$679 | -$965 | -$1,683 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$137 | -$354 | -$641 | -$1,197 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$101 | -$114 | -$392 | -$820 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$353 | +$145 | -$118 | -$443 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$759 | +$563 | +$331 | +$123 |
| $205 (+9%) โ target | +$1,293 | +$1,120 | +$932 | +$817 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$1,494 | +$1,329 | +$1,158 | +$1,066 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$2,291 | +$2,160 | +$2,046 | +$2,009 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$3,135 | +$3,037 | +$2,967 | +$2,953 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.