Target Price Playground
NXPI
$204.37
๐ข
NXPI IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-31.6% vs 30d avg of 61.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.46 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.6 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $180 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$914 (156.1%) on $586 risked, vs $-2,437 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 13.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NXPI hits $180 by Jun 19
+$914
+156.1% on $586 risked
Max Profit
+$914
If the stock โค $190 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$586
Net debit
Break-even
$199.14
-2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.67 / 0.6 / 1.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | +$688 | +$754 | +$848 | +$914 |
| $174 (-15%) | +$559 | +$622 | +$734 | +$914 |
| $180 (-12%) โ target | +$466 | +$518 | +$621 | +$914 |
| $184 (-10%) | +$405 | +$447 | +$534 | +$914 |
| $194 (-5%) | +$239 | +$248 | +$269 | +$499 |
| $200 (-2%) | +$140 | +$127 | +$101 | -$114 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | +$76 | +$49 | -$6 | -$523 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$14 | -$25 | -$106 | -$586 |
| $215 (+5%) | -$74 | -$129 | -$237 | -$586 |
| $225 (+10%) | -$203 | -$275 | -$399 | -$586 |
| $235 (+15%) | -$308 | -$384 | -$496 | -$586 |
| $245 (+20%) | -$390 | -$461 | -$547 | -$586 |
Uses NXPI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.