Target Price Playground
NXPI
$204.37
๐ข
NXPI IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-31.6% vs 30d avg of 61.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.51 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.66 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $230 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$915 (156.3%) on $585 risked, vs +$2,563 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NXPI hits $230 by Jun 19
+$915
+156.3% on $585 risked
Max Profit
+$915
If the stock โฅ $220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$585
Net debit
Break-even
$210.85
+3.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.61 / -0.85 / 2.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | -$477 | -$526 | -$573 | -$585 |
| $174 (-15%) | -$393 | -$455 | -$538 | -$585 |
| $184 (-10%) | -$280 | -$342 | -$450 | -$585 |
| $194 (-5%) | -$143 | -$190 | -$288 | -$585 |
| $200 (-2%) | -$53 | -$85 | -$157 | -$585 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | +$8 | -$11 | -$59 | -$585 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$70 | +$64 | +$44 | -$239 |
| $215 (+5%) | +$163 | +$177 | +$201 | +$374 |
| $225 (+10%) | +$310 | +$355 | +$442 | +$915 |
| $230 (+13%) โ target | +$379 | +$437 | +$546 | +$915 |
| $235 (+15%) | +$442 | +$509 | +$632 | +$915 |
| $245 (+20%) | +$555 | +$633 | +$760 | +$915 |
Uses NXPI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.