Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $215 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$860 (4.7%) on $-860 credit (max loss $18,140), vs +$1,063 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | -$2,043 | -$1,925 | -$1,812 | -$1,790 |
| $174 (-15%) | -$1,334 | -$1,159 | -$949 | -$769 |
| $184 (-10%) | -$745 | -$532 | -$251 | +$253 |
| $194 (-5%) | -$278 | -$53 | +$247 | +$860 |
| $200 (-2%) | -$53 | +$168 | +$453 | +$860 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | +$76 | +$290 | +$557 | +$860 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$190 | +$395 | +$638 | +$860 |
| $215 (+5%) โ target | +$344 | +$528 | +$730 | +$860 |
| $225 (+10%) | +$518 | +$667 | +$806 | +$860 |
| $235 (+15%) | +$642 | +$754 | +$840 | +$860 |
| $245 (+20%) | +$724 | +$804 | +$853 | +$860 |