Target Price Playground
NXPI
$204.37
๐ข
NXPI IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-31.6% vs 30d avg of 61.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $204.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.66 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $220 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,529 (13.0%) on $19,471 risked, vs +$1,563 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NXPI hits $220 by Jun 19
+$2,529
+13.0% on $19,471 risked
Max Profit
+$2,529
If the stock โฅ $220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$19,471
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$194.71
-4.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.82 / 11.49 / -32.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | -$3,209 | -$3,150 | -$3,123 | -$3,121 |
| $174 (-15%) | -$2,287 | -$2,181 | -$2,112 | -$2,100 |
| $184 (-10%) | -$1,431 | -$1,267 | -$1,125 | -$1,078 |
| $194 (-5%) | -$661 | -$436 | -$200 | -$56 |
| $200 (-2%) | -$247 | +$11 | +$305 | +$557 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | +$8 | +$285 | +$614 | +$966 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$246 | +$539 | +$898 | +$1,375 |
| $215 (+5%) | +$571 | +$881 | +$1,273 | +$1,988 |
| $220 (+8%) โ target | +$827 | +$1,145 | +$1,551 | +$2,529 |
| $225 (+10%) | +$1,030 | +$1,351 | +$1,757 | +$2,529 |
| $235 (+15%) | +$1,392 | +$1,702 | +$2,078 | +$2,529 |
| $245 (+20%) | +$1,668 | +$1,953 | +$2,270 | +$2,529 |
Uses NXPI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.