Target Price Playground
NXPI
$204.37
๐ข
NXPI IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-31.6% vs 30d avg of 61.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $205 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.93 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.5 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $195 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$942 (173.5%) on $543 risked, vs $-937 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 37.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NXPI hits $195 by Jun 19
+$942
+173.5% on $543 risked
Max Profit
+$931
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$530
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$215.27
+5.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.0 / 2.33 / 7.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | +$403 | +$434 | +$455 | +$412 |
| $174 (-15%) | +$379 | +$427 | +$488 | +$476 |
| $184 (-10%) | +$331 | +$389 | +$484 | +$627 |
| $195 (-5%) โ target | +$254 | +$308 | +$406 | +$942 |
| $200 (-2%) | +$210 | +$256 | +$341 | +$633 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | +$173 | +$211 | +$280 | +$425 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$134 | +$164 | +$214 | +$244 |
| $215 (+5%) | +$74 | +$89 | +$107 | +$21 |
| $225 (+10%) | -$28 | -$37 | -$68 | -$238 |
| $235 (+15%) | -$125 | -$155 | -$220 | -$389 |
| $245 (+20%) | -$212 | -$256 | -$335 | -$470 |
Uses NXPI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.