Target Price Playground
NXPI
$204.37
๐ข
NXPI IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-31.6% vs 30d avg of 61.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $204.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.5 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NXPI hits $225 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$913 (4.2%) on $21,587 risked, vs +$2,063 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $20,437. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NXPI is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NXPI hits $225 by Jun 19
+$913
+4.2% on $21,587 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,087
Put floors you at $195
Break-even
$215.87
+5.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.93 / -10.34 / 33.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NXPI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $164 (-20%) | -$1,925 | -$2,021 | -$2,098 | -$2,087 |
| $174 (-15%) | -$1,662 | -$1,818 | -$1,990 | -$2,087 |
| $184 (-10%) | -$1,284 | -$1,487 | -$1,747 | -$2,087 |
| $194 (-5%) | -$785 | -$1,014 | -$1,320 | -$2,087 |
| $200 (-2%) | -$431 | -$663 | -$969 | -$1,559 |
| $204 (0%) โ spot | -$173 | -$401 | -$697 | -$1,150 |
| $208 (+2%) | +$102 | -$120 | -$400 | -$741 |
| $215 (+5%) | +$542 | +$335 | +$89 | -$128 |
| $225 (+10%) โ target | +$1,358 | +$1,184 | +$1,005 | +$913 |
| $235 (+15%) | +$2,209 | +$2,072 | +$1,953 | +$1,916 |
| $245 (+20%) | +$3,124 | +$3,022 | +$2,950 | +$2,937 |
Uses NXPI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.