Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $60 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $69 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.06 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $63 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.32 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $60 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$326 (118.8%) on $274 risked, vs $-865 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 9.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $60. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $60 by Jun 19
+$326
+118.8% on $274 risked
Max Profit
+$326
If the stock โค $63 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$274
Net debit
Break-even
$66.26
-3.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.12 / -0.41 / 1.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | +$209 | +$234 | +$276 | +$326 |
| $58 (-15%) | +$161 | +$182 | +$223 | +$326 |
| $60 (-13%) โ target | +$136 | +$153 | +$188 | +$326 |
| $62 (-10%) | +$108 | +$120 | +$146 | +$326 |
| $65 (-5%) | +$54 | +$54 | +$56 | +$104 |
| $67 (-2%) | +$21 | +$14 | +$1 | -$102 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$11 | -$34 | -$239 |
| $70 (+2%) | -$20 | -$36 | -$67 | -$274 |
| $72 (+5%) | -$50 | -$71 | -$112 | -$274 |
| $76 (+10%) | -$94 | -$122 | -$173 | -$274 |
| $79 (+15%) | -$132 | -$164 | -$215 | -$274 |
| $82 (+20%) | -$164 | -$196 | -$241 | -$274 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.