Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $72 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $63 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.32 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $72 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$332 (5.6%) on $-332 credit (max loss $5,968), vs +$335 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $72. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $72 by Jun 19
+$332
+5.6% on $5,968 max loss
Max Profit
+$332
If the stock โฅ $63 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$5,968
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$59.68
-13.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
29.82 / 3.72 / -10.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | -$658 | -$593 | -$521 | -$476 |
| $58 (-15%) | -$443 | -$362 | -$260 | -$133 |
| $62 (-10%) | -$262 | -$172 | -$51 | +$211 |
| $65 (-5%) | -$116 | -$22 | +$100 | +$332 |
| $67 (-2%) | -$43 | +$49 | +$167 | +$332 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$90 | +$201 | +$332 |
| $70 (+2%) | +$39 | +$126 | +$230 | +$332 |
| $72 (+5%) โ target | +$88 | +$169 | +$262 | +$332 |
| $76 (+10%) | +$158 | +$228 | +$298 | +$332 |
| $79 (+15%) | +$209 | +$266 | +$316 | +$332 |
| $82 (+20%) | +$246 | +$291 | +$325 | +$332 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.