Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $65 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $69 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.1 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.3 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $65 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$326 (116.4%) on $280 risked, vs $-365 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 22.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $65. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $65 by Jun 19
+$326
+116.4% on $280 risked
Max Profit
+$323
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$263
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$71.67
+4.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.48 / 0.67 / 2.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | +$100 | +$116 | +$134 | +$120 |
| $58 (-15%) | +$88 | +$110 | +$141 | +$157 |
| $62 (-10%) | +$70 | +$93 | +$133 | +$225 |
| $65 (-5%) โ target | +$48 | +$69 | +$108 | +$326 |
| $67 (-2%) | +$29 | +$48 | +$81 | +$195 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | +$33 | +$62 | +$126 |
| $70 (+2%) | +$5 | +$18 | +$40 | +$64 |
| $72 (+5%) | -$14 | -$6 | +$6 | -$15 |
| $76 (+10%) | -$47 | -$47 | -$52 | -$114 |
| $79 (+15%) | -$79 | -$87 | -$107 | -$181 |
| $82 (+20%) | -$110 | -$124 | -$153 | -$223 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.