Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $77 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $69 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.28 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $77 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$172 (27.4%) on $628 risked, vs +$835 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $77. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $77 by Jun 19
+$172
+27.4% on $628 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$628
Premium paid
Break-even
$75.28
+9.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.06 / -4.97 / 11.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | -$507 | -$565 | -$613 | -$628 |
| $58 (-15%) | -$426 | -$505 | -$585 | -$628 |
| $62 (-10%) | -$316 | -$413 | -$526 | -$628 |
| $65 (-5%) | -$174 | -$286 | -$425 | -$628 |
| $67 (-2%) | -$73 | -$191 | -$340 | -$628 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$120 | -$273 | -$628 |
| $70 (+2%) | +$78 | -$43 | -$198 | -$526 |
| $72 (+5%) | +$203 | +$82 | -$70 | -$320 |
| $76 (+10%) | +$434 | +$318 | +$179 | +$24 |
| $77 (+12%) โ target | +$541 | +$429 | +$297 | +$172 |
| $79 (+15%) | +$689 | +$581 | +$462 | +$367 |
| $82 (+20%) | +$963 | +$867 | +$769 | +$710 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.