Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $76 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $68.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.3 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $76 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$305 (4.2%) on $7,295 risked, vs +$735 (10.7%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $76. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $76 by Jun 19
+$305
+4.2% on $7,295 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$795
Put floors you at $65
Break-even
$72.95
+6.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.8 / -4.05 / 11.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | -$660 | -$716 | -$774 | -$795 |
| $58 (-15%) | -$549 | -$624 | -$714 | -$795 |
| $62 (-10%) | -$404 | -$493 | -$609 | -$795 |
| $65 (-5%) | -$226 | -$322 | -$450 | -$773 |
| $67 (-2%) | -$104 | -$201 | -$328 | -$567 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | -$17 | -$113 | -$237 | -$430 |
| $70 (+2%) | +$74 | -$20 | -$139 | -$293 |
| $72 (+5%) | +$220 | +$130 | +$21 | -$87 |
| $76 (+11%) โ target | +$520 | +$441 | +$357 | +$305 |
| $79 (+15%) | +$762 | +$694 | +$628 | +$600 |
| $82 (+20%) | +$1,059 | +$1,003 | +$956 | +$943 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.