Target Price Playground
ON
$68.65
๐ข
ON IV: 49.9% โ LOW
(-44.3% vs 30d avg of 89.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $74 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $68.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $74 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.3 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ON hits $74 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$965 (15.0%) on $6,435 risked, vs +$535 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $6,865. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ON is at $74. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ON hits $74 by Jun 19
+$965
+15.0% on $6,435 risked
Max Profit
+$965
If the stock โฅ $74 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$6,435
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$64.35
-6.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.24 / 4.85 / -11.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ON Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $55 (-20%) | -$1,011 | -$972 | -$947 | -$943 |
| $58 (-15%) | -$719 | -$661 | -$613 | -$600 |
| $62 (-10%) | -$451 | -$371 | -$293 | -$256 |
| $65 (-5%) | -$211 | -$111 | +$0 | +$87 |
| $67 (-2%) | -$80 | +$29 | +$159 | +$293 |
| $69 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$116 | +$257 | +$430 |
| $70 (+2%) | +$76 | +$197 | +$347 | +$567 |
| $72 (+5%) | +$182 | +$308 | +$467 | +$773 |
| $74 (+8%) โ target | +$271 | +$400 | +$564 | +$965 |
| $76 (+10%) | +$335 | +$465 | +$630 | +$965 |
| $79 (+15%) | +$461 | +$589 | +$748 | +$965 |
| $82 (+20%) | +$564 | +$685 | +$827 | +$965 |
Uses ON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.