Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.65 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.89 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $120 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$824 (121.9%) on $676 risked, vs $-1,809 (-13.1%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 9.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $120 by Jun 19
+$824
+121.9% on $676 risked
Max Profit
+$824
If the stock โค $125 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$676
Net debit
Break-even
$133.24
-3.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.73 / -0.83 / 4.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | +$514 | +$575 | +$680 | +$824 |
| $117 (-15%) | +$397 | +$445 | +$542 | +$824 |
| $120 (-13%) โ target | +$350 | +$390 | +$475 | +$824 |
| $124 (-10%) | +$270 | +$296 | +$354 | +$824 |
| $131 (-5%) | +$140 | +$138 | +$140 | +$205 |
| $135 (-2%) | +$63 | +$45 | +$10 | -$209 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | +$13 | -$16 | -$73 | -$485 |
| $141 (+2%) | -$35 | -$75 | -$152 | -$676 |
| $145 (+5%) | -$105 | -$158 | -$259 | -$676 |
| $152 (+10%) | -$212 | -$281 | -$406 | -$676 |
| $159 (+15%) | -$305 | -$383 | -$511 | -$676 |
| $166 (+20%) | -$384 | -$464 | -$580 | -$676 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.