Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.45 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $155 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$585 (141.0%) on $415 risked, vs +$1,691 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 11.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $155 by Jun 19
+$585
+141.0% on $415 risked
Max Profit
+$585
If the stock โฅ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$415
Net debit
Break-even
$144.15
+4.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.19 / -0.4 / -0.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$306 | -$343 | -$392 | -$415 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$251 | -$290 | -$355 | -$415 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$184 | -$220 | -$289 | -$415 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$110 | -$135 | -$192 | -$415 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$63 | -$80 | -$121 | -$415 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | -$31 | -$42 | -$70 | -$415 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$0 | -$3 | -$16 | -$330 |
| $145 (+5%) | +$48 | +$55 | +$65 | +$84 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$125 | +$150 | +$195 | +$585 |
| $155 (+12%) โ target | +$159 | +$190 | +$249 | +$585 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$198 | +$236 | +$309 | +$585 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$263 | +$312 | +$400 | +$585 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.