Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $145 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$789 (6.7%) on $-789 credit (max loss $11,711), vs +$691 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$1,120 | -$973 | -$802 | -$664 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$709 | -$533 | -$306 | +$27 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$367 | -$174 | +$81 | +$717 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$88 | +$107 | +$360 | +$789 |
| $135 (-2%) | +$51 | +$241 | +$481 | +$789 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | +$133 | +$318 | +$545 | +$789 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$208 | +$386 | +$598 | +$789 |
| $145 (+5%) โ target | +$306 | +$472 | +$658 | +$789 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$437 | +$580 | +$723 | +$789 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$536 | +$654 | +$757 | +$789 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$608 | +$704 | +$774 | +$789 |