Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $138.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.45 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $150 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,136 (16.6%) on $12,864 risked, vs +$1,191 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $150 by Jun 19
+$2,136
+16.6% on $12,864 risked
Max Profit
+$2,136
If the stock โฅ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$12,864
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$128.64
-6.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.27 / 10.68 / -24.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$1,968 | -$1,883 | -$1,826 | -$1,817 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$1,386 | -$1,260 | -$1,156 | -$1,126 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$851 | -$682 | -$516 | -$436 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$367 | -$159 | +$75 | +$255 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$104 | +$125 | +$397 | +$669 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | +$60 | +$301 | +$595 | +$945 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$214 | +$466 | +$779 | +$1,221 |
| $145 (+5%) | +$430 | +$694 | +$1,028 | +$1,635 |
| $150 (+9%) โ target | +$664 | +$936 | +$1,285 | +$2,136 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$745 | +$1,019 | +$1,370 | +$2,136 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$1,009 | +$1,282 | +$1,623 | +$2,136 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$1,226 | +$1,488 | +$1,801 | +$2,136 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.