Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.4 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.85 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $130 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$748 (114.2%) on $655 risked, vs $-809 (-5.9%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 19.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $130 by Jun 19
+$748
+114.2% on $655 risked
Max Profit
+$741
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$598
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$144.69
+4.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.22 / 1.59 / 5.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | +$271 | +$312 | +$362 | +$350 |
| $117 (-15%) | +$236 | +$285 | +$360 | +$424 |
| $124 (-10%) | +$187 | +$237 | +$326 | +$559 |
| $130 (-6%) โ target | +$137 | +$183 | +$268 | +$730 |
| $135 (-2%) | +$85 | +$122 | +$192 | +$410 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | +$57 | +$88 | +$146 | +$266 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$27 | +$52 | +$96 | +$136 |
| $145 (+5%) | -$18 | -$3 | +$19 | -$32 |
| $152 (+10%) | -$94 | -$97 | -$112 | -$251 |
| $159 (+15%) | -$168 | -$188 | -$234 | -$402 |
| $166 (+20%) | -$239 | -$272 | -$339 | -$502 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.