Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $155 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$140 (10.3%) on $1,360 risked, vs +$1,691 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $155 by Jun 19
+$140
+10.3% on $1,360 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,360
Premium paid
Break-even
$153.60
+11.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.93 / -11.08 / 23.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$1,099 | -$1,223 | -$1,327 | -$1,360 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$935 | -$1,101 | -$1,270 | -$1,360 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$714 | -$919 | -$1,154 | -$1,360 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$433 | -$667 | -$957 | -$1,360 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$235 | -$481 | -$794 | -$1,360 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | -$91 | -$343 | -$664 | -$1,360 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$62 | -$193 | -$520 | -$1,275 |
| $145 (+5%) | +$308 | +$52 | -$274 | -$861 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$761 | +$511 | +$206 | -$170 |
| $155 (+12%) โ target | +$980 | +$736 | +$446 | +$140 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$1,260 | +$1,025 | +$757 | +$520 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$1,799 | +$1,586 | +$1,361 | +$1,211 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.