Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $138.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.85 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $150 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$206 (1.4%) on $14,794 risked, vs +$1,191 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $150 by Jun 19
+$206
+1.4% on $14,794 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,794
Put floors you at $130
Break-even
$147.94
+7.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.07 / -9.49 / 22.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | -$1,464 | -$1,592 | -$1,728 | -$1,794 |
| $117 (-15%) | -$1,227 | -$1,391 | -$1,592 | -$1,794 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$925 | -$1,115 | -$1,363 | -$1,794 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$557 | -$760 | -$1,028 | -$1,675 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$308 | -$511 | -$777 | -$1,261 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | -$131 | -$332 | -$591 | -$985 |
| $141 (+2%) | +$55 | -$142 | -$392 | -$709 |
| $145 (+5%) | +$349 | +$160 | -$69 | -$295 |
| $150 (+9%) โ target | +$726 | +$551 | +$352 | +$206 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$875 | +$706 | +$519 | +$396 |
| $159 (+15%) | +$1,439 | +$1,293 | +$1,150 | +$1,086 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$2,034 | +$1,912 | +$1,808 | +$1,777 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.