Target Price Playground
ORCL
$138.09
๐ข
ORCL IV: 54.8% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.65 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORCL hits $160 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-825 (-29.2%) on $2,825 risked, vs +$2,191 (15.9%) for 100 shares on $13,809. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORCL is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORCL hits $160 by Jun 19
$-825
-29.2% on $2,825 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,825
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$111.75
-19.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.65 / -21.09 / 46.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 (-20%) | +$534 | +$325 | +$154 | +$128 |
| $117 (-15%) | +$171 | -$123 | -$422 | -$563 |
| $124 (-10%) | -$77 | -$448 | -$881 | -$1,253 |
| $131 (-5%) | -$205 | -$635 | -$1,178 | -$1,944 |
| $135 (-2%) | -$223 | -$678 | -$1,265 | -$2,358 |
| $138 (0%) โ spot | -$211 | -$677 | -$1,283 | -$2,634 |
| $141 (+2%) | -$181 | -$654 | -$1,269 | -$2,740 |
| $145 (+5%) | -$102 | -$578 | -$1,191 | -$2,326 |
| $152 (+10%) | +$112 | -$350 | -$922 | -$1,635 |
| $160 (+16%) โ target | +$482 | +$57 | -$428 | -$825 |
| $166 (+20%) | +$807 | +$419 | +$6 | -$254 |
Uses ORCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.