Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.97 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $100 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.96 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$399 (132.6%) on $301 risked, vs +$1,199 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 10.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19
+$399
+132.6% on $301 risked
Max Profit
+$399
If the stock โฅ $100 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$301
Net debit
Break-even
$96.01
+3.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.08 / -0.98 / 1.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | -$287 | -$297 | -$301 | -$301 |
| $79 (-15%) | -$261 | -$282 | -$298 | -$301 |
| $84 (-10%) | -$211 | -$241 | -$280 | -$301 |
| $88 (-5%) | -$132 | -$162 | -$215 | -$301 |
| $91 (-2%) | -$74 | -$97 | -$143 | -$301 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | -$32 | -$48 | -$81 | -$300 |
| $95 (+2%) | +$10 | +$3 | -$13 | -$114 |
| $98 (+5%) | +$74 | +$81 | +$93 | +$165 |
| $102 (+10%) | +$172 | +$197 | +$245 | +$399 |
| $105 (+13%) โ target | +$221 | +$252 | +$306 | +$399 |
| $107 (+15%) | +$251 | +$285 | +$337 | +$399 |
| $112 (+20%) | +$309 | +$340 | +$378 | +$399 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.