Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $82 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $86 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.57 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $82 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$438 (167.2%) on $262 risked, vs $-1,101 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $82. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $82 by Jun 19
+$438
+167.2% on $262 risked
Max Profit
+$438
If the stock โค $86 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$262
Net debit
Break-even
$90.38
-2.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.54 / -0.54 / 3.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | +$382 | +$407 | +$431 | +$438 |
| $79 (-15%) | +$319 | +$352 | +$400 | +$438 |
| $82 (-12%) โ target | +$262 | +$294 | +$348 | +$438 |
| $84 (-10%) | +$224 | +$252 | +$303 | +$438 |
| $88 (-5%) | +$111 | +$118 | +$132 | +$202 |
| $91 (-2%) | +$43 | +$36 | +$19 | -$77 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$16 | -$50 | -$262 |
| $95 (+2%) | -$40 | -$63 | -$108 | -$262 |
| $98 (+5%) | -$94 | -$124 | -$175 | -$262 |
| $102 (+10%) | -$163 | -$194 | -$235 | -$262 |
| $107 (+15%) | -$208 | -$232 | -$256 | -$262 |
| $112 (+20%) | -$235 | -$250 | -$261 | -$262 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.