Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
ORLY
$93.01
๐ŸŸข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ€” LOW (-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $98 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $86 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.57 ยท ฮ” -0.22
P&L at Expiry Now $93 Target $98 $65 $93 $121
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If ORLY hits $98 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$157 (1.9%) on $-157 credit (max loss $8,443), vs +$499 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 0.4ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $98. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if ORLY hits $98 by Jun 19
+$157
+1.9% on $8,443 max loss
Max Profit
+$157
If the stock โ‰ฅ $86 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$8,443
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$84.43
-9.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
22.31 / 2.29 / -11.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

ORLY Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$74 (-20%) -$998 -$986 -$983 -$1,002
$79 (-15%) -$634 -$594 -$552 -$537
$84 (-10%) -$344 -$284 -$204 -$72
$88 (-5%) -$135 -$71 +$14 +$157
$91 (-2%) -$47 +$13 +$85 +$157
$93 (0%) โ† spot -$0 +$53 +$114 +$157
$95 (+2%) +$37 +$84 +$133 +$157
$98 (+5%) โ† target +$83 +$118 +$148 +$157
$102 (+10%) +$121 +$142 +$155 +$157
$107 (+15%) +$141 +$152 +$157 +$157
$112 (+20%) +$151 +$156 +$157 +$157
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.