Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $100 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $93.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $100 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.96 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $100 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$895 (9.8%) on $9,105 risked, vs +$699 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $100 by Jun 19
+$895
+9.8% on $9,105 risked
Max Profit
+$895
If the stock โฅ $100 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$9,105
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$91.05
-2.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.93 / 2.99 / -14.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | -$1,668 | -$1,665 | -$1,664 | -$1,664 |
| $79 (-15%) | -$1,213 | -$1,203 | -$1,199 | -$1,199 |
| $84 (-10%) | -$778 | -$751 | -$736 | -$734 |
| $88 (-5%) | -$378 | -$326 | -$282 | -$269 |
| $91 (-2%) | -$163 | -$94 | -$26 | +$10 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | -$32 | +$47 | +$133 | +$196 |
| $95 (+2%) | +$88 | +$176 | +$279 | +$382 |
| $98 (+5%) | +$247 | +$345 | +$467 | +$661 |
| $100 (+8%) โ target | +$361 | +$463 | +$592 | +$895 |
| $102 (+10%) | +$457 | +$559 | +$686 | +$895 |
| $107 (+15%) | +$602 | +$695 | +$800 | +$895 |
| $112 (+20%) | +$695 | +$772 | +$847 | +$895 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.