Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $88 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $93 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.9 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.16 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $88 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$306 (111.4%) on $275 risked, vs $-501 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 20.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $88. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $88 by Jun 19
+$306
+111.4% on $275 risked
Max Profit
+$297
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$275
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$93.13
+0.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.65 / 0.27 / 5.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | +$185 | +$194 | +$198 | +$195 |
| $79 (-15%) | +$167 | +$185 | +$203 | +$200 |
| $84 (-10%) | +$129 | +$153 | +$189 | +$228 |
| $88 (-5%) โ target | +$76 | +$97 | +$133 | +$307 |
| $91 (-2%) | +$30 | +$42 | +$64 | +$102 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | +$8 | +$18 | +$6 |
| $95 (+2%) | -$28 | -$27 | -$29 | -$72 |
| $98 (+5%) | -$71 | -$78 | -$95 | -$157 |
| $102 (+10%) | -$134 | -$151 | -$181 | -$233 |
| $107 (+15%) | -$184 | -$204 | -$231 | -$262 |
| $112 (+20%) | -$219 | -$237 | -$256 | -$271 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.