Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $82 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $82 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$681 (162.3%) on $419 risked, vs $-1,101 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 13.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $82. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $82 by Jun 19
+$681
+162.3% on $419 risked
Max Profit
+$8,881
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$419
Premium paid
Break-even
$88.81
-4.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.85 / -2.83 / 15.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | +$1,381 | +$1,393 | +$1,414 | +$1,440 |
| $79 (-15%) | +$952 | +$946 | +$952 | +$975 |
| $82 (-12%) โ target | +$703 | +$680 | +$666 | +$681 |
| $84 (-10%) | +$568 | +$535 | +$506 | +$510 |
| $88 (-5%) | +$247 | +$189 | +$118 | +$45 |
| $91 (-2%) | +$90 | +$23 | -$66 | -$234 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$69 | -$164 | -$419 |
| $95 (+2%) | -$77 | -$147 | -$241 | -$419 |
| $98 (+5%) | -$173 | -$239 | -$323 | -$419 |
| $102 (+10%) | -$284 | -$336 | -$390 | -$419 |
| $107 (+15%) | -$350 | -$385 | -$412 | -$419 |
| $112 (+20%) | -$385 | -$406 | -$418 | -$419 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.