Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $100 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $93.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.16 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $100 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$483 (5.1%) on $9,517 risked, vs +$699 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $100 by Jun 19
+$483
+5.1% on $9,517 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$717
Put floors you at $88
Break-even
$95.17
+2.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.77 / -2.55 / 13.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | -$743 | -$747 | -$740 | -$717 |
| $79 (-15%) | -$666 | -$696 | -$722 | -$717 |
| $84 (-10%) | -$522 | -$577 | -$645 | -$717 |
| $88 (-5%) | -$300 | -$366 | -$456 | -$681 |
| $91 (-2%) | -$129 | -$194 | -$278 | -$402 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$62 | -$138 | -$216 |
| $95 (+2%) | +$138 | +$82 | +$18 | -$30 |
| $98 (+5%) | +$362 | +$316 | +$270 | +$249 |
| $100 (+8%) โ target | +$562 | +$525 | +$493 | +$483 |
| $102 (+10%) | +$769 | +$740 | +$718 | +$714 |
| $107 (+15%) | +$1,204 | +$1,188 | +$1,180 | +$1,179 |
| $112 (+20%) | +$1,655 | +$1,647 | +$1,644 | +$1,644 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.