Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.97 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$284 (31.0%) on $916 risked, vs +$1,199 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19
+$284
+31.0% on $916 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$916
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$102.16
+9.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.3 / -6.8 / 31.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | +$901 | +$901 | +$917 | +$943 |
| $79 (-15%) | +$509 | +$472 | +$458 | +$478 |
| $84 (-10%) | +$205 | +$115 | +$32 | +$13 |
| $88 (-5%) | +$28 | -$112 | -$280 | -$452 |
| $91 (-2%) | -$7 | -$166 | -$369 | -$731 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$164 | -$378 | -$915 |
| $95 (+2%) | +$31 | -$134 | -$347 | -$729 |
| $98 (+5%) | +$119 | -$39 | -$231 | -$450 |
| $102 (+10%) | +$362 | +$232 | +$99 | +$15 |
| $105 (+13%) โ target | +$546 | +$436 | +$336 | +$284 |
| $107 (+15%) | +$695 | +$600 | +$520 | +$480 |
| $112 (+20%) | +$1,089 | +$1,022 | +$974 | +$945 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.