Target Price Playground
ORLY
$93.01
๐ข
ORLY IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-62.2% vs 30d avg of 76.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $93 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.97 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$703 (141.5%) on $497 risked, vs +$1,199 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $9,301. Options give 11.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $105 by Jun 19
+$703
+141.5% on $497 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$497
Premium paid
Break-even
$97.97
+5.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.15 / -3.97 / 15.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 (-20%) | -$480 | -$492 | -$497 | -$497 |
| $79 (-15%) | -$443 | -$474 | -$494 | -$497 |
| $84 (-10%) | -$363 | -$420 | -$474 | -$497 |
| $88 (-5%) | -$219 | -$301 | -$398 | -$497 |
| $91 (-2%) | -$97 | -$189 | -$303 | -$497 |
| $93 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$95 | -$214 | -$496 |
| $95 (+2%) | +$108 | +$13 | -$106 | -$310 |
| $98 (+5%) | +$292 | +$200 | +$92 | -$31 |
| $102 (+10%) | +$646 | +$568 | +$489 | +$434 |
| $105 (+13%) โ target | +$872 | +$805 | +$742 | +$703 |
| $107 (+15%) | +$1,045 | +$985 | +$932 | +$899 |
| $112 (+20%) | +$1,474 | +$1,428 | +$1,392 | +$1,364 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.