Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.94 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.92 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $19 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$98 (95.8%) on $102 risked, vs $-235 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 8.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $19 by Jun 19
+$98
+95.8% on $102 risked
Max Profit
+$98
If the stock โค $19 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$102
Net debit
Break-even
$19.98
-4.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.59 / -0.15 / 0.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$46 | +$51 | +$63 | +$98 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$35 | +$38 | +$47 | +$98 |
| $19 (-11%) โ target | +$26 | +$28 | +$33 | +$98 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$23 | +$24 | +$28 | +$98 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$11 | +$10 | +$8 | +$17 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$5 | +$2 | -$3 | -$45 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$4 | -$11 | -$87 |
| $21 (+2%) | -$4 | -$9 | -$18 | -$102 |
| $22 (+5%) | -$11 | -$17 | -$29 | -$102 |
| $23 (+10%) | -$21 | -$29 | -$45 | -$102 |
| $24 (+15%) | -$30 | -$40 | -$58 | -$102 |
| $25 (+20%) | -$39 | -$50 | -$69 | -$102 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.