Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.96 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $23 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.38 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$92 (156.9%) on $58 risked, vs +$265 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19
+$92
+156.9% on $58 risked
Max Profit
+$92
If the stock โฅ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$58
Net debit
Break-even
$21.58
+3.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.67 / 0.02 / -0.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$30 | -$35 | -$45 | -$58 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$23 | -$27 | -$37 | -$58 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$16 | -$19 | -$26 | -$58 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$8 | -$9 | -$14 | -$58 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$3 | -$3 | -$6 | -$58 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$1 | -$0 | -$58 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$4 | +$5 | +$5 | -$31 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$8 | +$10 | +$13 | +$31 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$16 | +$20 | +$27 | +$92 |
| $24 (+13%) โ target | +$20 | +$25 | +$33 | +$92 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$23 | +$29 | +$39 | +$92 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$30 | +$37 | +$49 | +$92 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.