Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $23 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.38 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $23 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$403 (21.8%) on $1,847 risked, vs +$165 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $23 by Jun 19
+$403
+21.8% on $1,847 risked
Max Profit
+$403
If the stock โฅ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,847
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$18.47
-11.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.47 / 2.31 / -3.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$259 | -$225 | -$193 | -$179 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$185 | -$145 | -$102 | -$75 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$117 | -$70 | -$17 | +$30 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$55 | -$4 | +$59 | +$134 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$22 | +$33 | +$100 | +$196 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$56 | +$126 | +$238 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$21 | +$78 | +$150 | +$280 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$50 | +$108 | +$183 | +$342 |
| $23 (+8%) โ target | +$76 | +$136 | +$213 | +$403 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$94 | +$154 | +$232 | +$403 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$133 | +$194 | +$271 | +$403 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$168 | +$228 | +$302 | +$403 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.