Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $20 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.45 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.4 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $20 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$133 (126.2%) on $105 risked, vs $-85 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 30.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $20. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $20 by Jun 19
+$133
+126.2% on $105 risked
Max Profit
+$129
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$69
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$23.33
+11.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
91%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-3.65 / 0.31 / 0.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$8 | +$15 | +$26 | +$25 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$8 | +$16 | +$31 | +$49 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$6 | +$15 | +$33 | +$82 |
| $20 (-4%) โ target | +$3 | +$12 | +$30 | +$133 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$2 | +$11 | +$28 | +$111 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$9 | +$26 | +$91 |
| $21 (+2%) | -$1 | +$7 | +$23 | +$72 |
| $22 (+5%) | -$4 | +$4 | +$18 | +$47 |
| $23 (+10%) | -$9 | -$3 | +$8 | +$11 |
| $24 (+15%) | -$14 | -$10 | -$4 | -$17 |
| $25 (+20%) | -$19 | -$17 | -$15 | -$39 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.