Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.96 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-46 (-15.6%) on $296 risked, vs +$265 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19
$-46
-15.6% on $296 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$296
Premium paid
Break-even
$23.96
+14.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.2 / -2.29 / 3.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$189 | -$227 | -$269 | -$296 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$151 | -$196 | -$248 | -$296 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$107 | -$156 | -$217 | -$296 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$56 | -$109 | -$177 | -$296 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$23 | -$78 | -$148 | -$296 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$55 | -$126 | -$296 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$25 | -$31 | -$103 | -$269 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$63 | +$6 | -$66 | -$207 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$131 | +$74 | +$4 | -$102 |
| $24 (+13%) โ target | +$169 | +$113 | +$44 | -$46 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$203 | +$148 | +$81 | +$2 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$280 | +$227 | +$164 | +$106 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.