Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.94 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $19 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-44 (-15.0%) on $294 risked, vs $-235 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $19 by Jun 19
$-44
-15.0% on $294 risked
Max Profit
+$1,806
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$294
Premium paid
Break-even
$18.06
-13.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.8 / -2.03 / 3.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$228 | +$195 | +$159 | +$138 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$161 | +$123 | +$76 | +$34 |
| $19 (-11%) โ target | +$116 | +$73 | +$20 | -$44 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$101 | +$57 | +$2 | -$71 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$47 | +$0 | -$62 | -$175 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$18 | -$30 | -$95 | -$237 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$50 | -$115 | -$279 |
| $21 (+2%) | -$18 | -$68 | -$134 | -$294 |
| $22 (+5%) | -$42 | -$92 | -$159 | -$294 |
| $23 (+10%) | -$79 | -$129 | -$194 | -$294 |
| $24 (+15%) | -$110 | -$160 | -$221 | -$294 |
| $25 (+20%) | -$138 | -$185 | -$242 | -$294 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.