Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.4 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $23 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-25 (-1.1%) on $2,325 risked, vs +$215 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $23 by Jun 19
$-25
-1.1% on $2,325 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$325
Put floors you at $20
Break-even
$23.25
+11.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.48 / -1.98 / 3.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$211 | -$247 | -$289 | -$325 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$168 | -$209 | -$261 | -$325 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$118 | -$163 | -$221 | -$325 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$62 | -$109 | -$172 | -$325 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$26 | -$74 | -$137 | -$282 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$48 | -$112 | -$240 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$27 | -$22 | -$85 | -$198 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$68 | +$20 | -$42 | -$136 |
| $23 (+10%) โ target | +$145 | +$99 | +$41 | -$25 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$218 | +$173 | +$120 | +$73 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$299 | +$257 | +$210 | +$177 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.