Target Price Playground
OTEX
$20.85
๐ด
OTEX IV: 83.3% โ HIGH
(+19.1% vs 30d avg of 70.0%)
Options are expensive vs 30d avg โ good time to SELL premium (covered calls, credit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.96 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.94 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-290 (-49.2%) on $590 risked, vs +$315 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if OTEX hits $24 by Jun 19
$-290
-49.2% on $590 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$590
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$15.10
-27.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.4 / -4.32 / 7.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$39 | -$32 | -$109 | -$158 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$10 | -$73 | -$171 | -$262 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$6 | -$99 | -$215 | -$367 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$9 | -$109 | -$239 | -$471 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$5 | -$108 | -$243 | -$533 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$105 | -$242 | -$575 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$7 | -$99 | -$238 | -$563 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$21 | -$86 | -$225 | -$501 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$52 | -$55 | -$191 | -$396 |
| $24 (+15%) โ target | +$94 | -$11 | -$139 | -$290 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$142 | +$41 | -$77 | -$188 |
Uses OTEX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.