Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If OTEX hits $22 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$192 (11.2%) on $-192 credit (max loss $1,708), vs +$115 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $2,085. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if OTEX is at $22. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| OTEX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$182 | -$144 | -$96 | -$40 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$127 | -$85 | -$30 | +$64 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$78 | -$33 | +$26 | +$169 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$36 | +$10 | +$70 | +$192 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$14 | +$32 | +$92 | +$192 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$46 | +$105 | +$192 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$13 | +$59 | +$116 | +$192 |
| $22 (+6%) โ target | +$34 | +$78 | +$133 | +$192 |
| $23 (+10%) | +$58 | +$100 | +$150 | +$192 |
| $24 (+15%) | +$80 | +$120 | +$163 | +$192 |
| $25 (+20%) | +$99 | +$135 | +$173 | +$192 |