Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.0 ยท ฮ 0.53
SHORT CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.95 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $175 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$895 (147.9%) on $605 risked, vs +$1,927 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 11.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $175 by Jun 19
+$895
+147.9% on $605 risked
Max Profit
+$895
If the stock โฅ $170 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$605
Net debit
Break-even
$161.05
+3.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.66 / -1.28 / 1.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$491 | -$541 | -$591 | -$605 |
| $132 (-15%) | -$408 | -$469 | -$553 | -$605 |
| $140 (-10%) | -$297 | -$358 | -$464 | -$605 |
| $148 (-5%) | -$165 | -$212 | -$307 | -$605 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$79 | -$110 | -$181 | -$605 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | -$20 | -$40 | -$88 | -$532 |
| $159 (+2%) | +$40 | +$32 | +$10 | -$221 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$129 | +$141 | +$159 | +$247 |
| $171 (+10%) | +$271 | +$313 | +$393 | +$895 |
| $175 (+12%) โ target | +$334 | +$388 | +$490 | +$895 |
| $179 (+15%) | +$400 | +$464 | +$582 | +$895 |
| $187 (+20%) | +$512 | +$589 | +$716 | +$895 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.