Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.32 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $190 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$848 (130.1%) on $652 risked, vs +$2,044 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 10.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $190 by Jun 19
+$848
+130.1% on $652 risked
Max Profit
+$848
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$652
Net debit
Break-even
$176.52
+4.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
18.91 / -1.35 / 1.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | -$564 | -$606 | -$645 | -$652 |
| $144 (-15%) | -$486 | -$543 | -$618 | -$652 |
| $153 (-10%) | -$377 | -$438 | -$544 | -$652 |
| $161 (-5%) | -$240 | -$290 | -$395 | -$652 |
| $166 (-2%) | -$148 | -$184 | -$267 | -$652 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | -$84 | -$109 | -$168 | -$652 |
| $173 (+2%) | -$20 | -$31 | -$63 | -$357 |
| $178 (+5%) | +$76 | +$85 | +$99 | +$152 |
| $187 (+10%) | +$231 | +$272 | +$355 | +$848 |
| $190 (+12%) โ target | +$291 | +$342 | +$446 | +$848 |
| $195 (+15%) | +$370 | +$434 | +$557 | +$848 |
| $203 (+20%) | +$489 | +$564 | +$693 | +$848 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.