Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $150 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$820 (69.5%) on $1,180 risked, vs $-1,956 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 6.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $150 by Jun 19
+$820
+69.5% on $1,180 risked
Max Profit
+$15,820
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,180
Premium paid
Break-even
$158.20
-6.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.96 / -10.0 / 26.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | +$2,267 | +$2,232 | +$2,221 | +$2,255 |
| $144 (-15%) | +$1,559 | +$1,476 | +$1,403 | +$1,407 |
| $150 (-12%) โ target | +$1,115 | +$998 | +$869 | +$820 |
| $153 (-10%) | +$932 | +$801 | +$647 | +$560 |
| $161 (-5%) | +$399 | +$230 | +$3 | -$288 |
| $166 (-2%) | +$126 | -$57 | -$312 | -$797 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | -$36 | -$224 | -$488 | -$1,136 |
| $173 (+2%) | -$182 | -$372 | -$637 | -$1,180 |
| $178 (+5%) | -$375 | -$562 | -$816 | -$1,180 |
| $187 (+10%) | -$629 | -$798 | -$1,008 | -$1,180 |
| $195 (+15%) | -$813 | -$954 | -$1,107 | -$1,180 |
| $203 (+20%) | -$941 | -$1,052 | -$1,152 | -$1,180 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.