Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $169.56 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.7 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $185 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$774 (4.4%) on $17,726 risked, vs +$1,544 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $185 by Jun 19
+$774
+4.4% on $17,726 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,726
Put floors you at $160
Break-even
$177.26
+4.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.44 / -9.54 / 25.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | -$1,583 | -$1,661 | -$1,730 | -$1,726 |
| $144 (-15%) | -$1,360 | -$1,486 | -$1,636 | -$1,726 |
| $153 (-10%) | -$1,036 | -$1,199 | -$1,419 | -$1,726 |
| $161 (-5%) | -$607 | -$785 | -$1,035 | -$1,618 |
| $166 (-2%) | -$301 | -$479 | -$722 | -$1,109 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | -$79 | -$252 | -$483 | -$770 |
| $173 (+2%) | +$157 | -$8 | -$222 | -$431 |
| $178 (+5%) | +$536 | +$384 | +$204 | +$78 |
| $185 (+9%) โ target | +$1,094 | +$966 | +$832 | +$774 |
| $195 (+15%) | +$1,958 | +$1,866 | +$1,790 | +$1,773 |
| $203 (+20%) | +$2,734 | +$2,669 | +$2,626 | +$2,621 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.