Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.32 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $195 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-12 (-0.5%) on $2,512 risked, vs +$2,544 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $16,956.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $195 by Jun 19
$-12
-0.5% on $2,512 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,512
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$144.88
-14.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.46 / -21.54 / 53.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | +$1,071 | +$960 | +$897 | +$923 |
| $144 (-15%) | +$502 | +$296 | +$109 | +$75 |
| $153 (-10%) | +$95 | -$207 | -$556 | -$772 |
| $161 (-5%) | -$124 | -$501 | -$997 | -$1,620 |
| $166 (-2%) | -$160 | -$565 | -$1,116 | -$2,129 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | -$144 | -$560 | -$1,129 | -$2,468 |
| $173 (+2%) | -$98 | -$517 | -$1,090 | -$2,217 |
| $178 (+5%) | +$26 | -$388 | -$937 | -$1,708 |
| $187 (+10%) | +$365 | -$13 | -$474 | -$860 |
| $195 (+15%) โ target | +$845 | +$523 | +$177 | -$12 |
| $203 (+20%) | +$1,435 | +$1,174 | +$934 | +$835 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.