Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.6% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.49
SHORT PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.09 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $150 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$849 (130.4%) on $651 risked, vs $-1,785 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 12.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $150 by Jun 19
+$849
+130.4% on $651 risked
Max Profit
+$849
If the stock โค $155 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$651
Net debit
Break-even
$163.49
-2.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.36 / -0.4 / 4.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | +$632 | +$697 | +$787 | +$849 |
| $143 (-15%) | +$503 | +$566 | +$676 | +$849 |
| $150 (-11%) โ target | +$370 | +$416 | +$508 | +$849 |
| $159 (-5%) | +$182 | +$191 | +$214 | +$403 |
| $164 (-2%) | +$82 | +$70 | +$46 | -$100 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | +$16 | -$10 | -$62 | -$436 |
| $171 (+2%) | -$47 | -$85 | -$163 | -$651 |
| $176 (+5%) | -$136 | -$190 | -$296 | -$651 |
| $185 (+10%) | -$267 | -$338 | -$461 | -$651 |
| $193 (+15%) | -$374 | -$449 | -$559 | -$651 |
| $201 (+20%) | -$457 | -$527 | -$611 | -$651 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.