Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.6% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.73 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $190 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$603 (151.9%) on $397 risked, vs +$2,215 (13.2%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $190 by Jun 19
+$603
+151.9% on $397 risked
Max Profit
+$603
If the stock โฅ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$397
Net debit
Break-even
$173.97
+3.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.53 / -0.65 / 2.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | -$331 | -$362 | -$391 | -$397 |
| $143 (-15%) | -$277 | -$317 | -$370 | -$397 |
| $151 (-10%) | -$202 | -$244 | -$315 | -$397 |
| $159 (-5%) | -$111 | -$144 | -$211 | -$397 |
| $164 (-2%) | -$51 | -$73 | -$124 | -$397 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$24 | -$59 | -$397 |
| $171 (+2%) | +$33 | +$27 | +$11 | -$276 |
| $176 (+5%) | +$95 | +$104 | +$117 | +$227 |
| $185 (+10%) | +$196 | +$225 | +$282 | +$603 |
| $190 (+13%) โ target | +$255 | +$295 | +$370 | +$603 |
| $193 (+15%) | +$286 | +$330 | +$412 | +$603 |
| $201 (+20%) | +$363 | +$415 | +$500 | +$603 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.