Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $175 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$709 (4.8%) on $-709 credit (max loss $14,791), vs +$715 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | -$1,588 | -$1,487 | -$1,389 | -$1,363 |
| $143 (-15%) | -$1,012 | -$866 | -$689 | -$524 |
| $151 (-10%) | -$537 | -$362 | -$132 | +$315 |
| $159 (-5%) | -$164 | +$18 | +$258 | +$709 |
| $164 (-2%) | +$14 | +$191 | +$415 | +$709 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | +$116 | +$286 | +$493 | +$709 |
| $171 (+2%) | +$205 | +$366 | +$553 | +$709 |
| $175 (+4%) โ target | +$292 | +$441 | +$604 | +$709 |
| $185 (+10%) | +$458 | +$572 | +$674 | +$709 |
| $193 (+15%) | +$552 | +$636 | +$697 | +$709 |
| $201 (+20%) | +$613 | +$671 | +$705 | +$709 |