Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.6% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $167.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.73 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $180 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,988 (12.4%) on $16,012 risked, vs +$1,215 (7.2%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $180 by Jun 19
+$1,988
+12.4% on $16,012 risked
Max Profit
+$1,988
If the stock โฅ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$16,012
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$160.12
-4.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.74 / 10.31 / -24.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | -$2,653 | -$2,607 | -$2,586 | -$2,584 |
| $143 (-15%) | -$1,894 | -$1,810 | -$1,754 | -$1,745 |
| $151 (-10%) | -$1,191 | -$1,059 | -$945 | -$906 |
| $159 (-5%) | -$559 | -$378 | -$186 | -$66 |
| $164 (-2%) | -$221 | -$13 | +$226 | +$437 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | -$12 | +$211 | +$478 | +$773 |
| $171 (+2%) | +$183 | +$418 | +$708 | +$1,109 |
| $176 (+5%) | +$447 | +$696 | +$1,010 | +$1,612 |
| $180 (+7%) โ target | +$624 | +$878 | +$1,202 | +$1,988 |
| $185 (+10%) | +$818 | +$1,074 | +$1,397 | +$1,988 |
| $193 (+15%) | +$1,109 | +$1,355 | +$1,649 | +$1,988 |
| $201 (+20%) | +$1,330 | +$1,552 | +$1,797 | +$1,988 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.