Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-26.7% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.05 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.8 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $160 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$719 (115.1%) on $625 risked, vs $-785 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 24.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $160 by Jun 19
+$719
+115.1% on $625 risked
Max Profit
+$700
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$611
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$173.63
+3.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.38 / 1.94 / 6.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | +$316 | +$345 | +$367 | +$337 |
| $143 (-15%) | +$286 | +$331 | +$387 | +$387 |
| $151 (-10%) | +$235 | +$288 | +$372 | +$502 |
| $160 (-5%) โ target | +$157 | +$205 | +$291 | +$738 |
| $164 (-2%) | +$110 | +$151 | +$224 | +$463 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | +$73 | +$106 | +$165 | +$282 |
| $171 (+2%) | +$34 | +$59 | +$100 | +$123 |
| $176 (+5%) | -$26 | -$14 | -$1 | -$76 |
| $185 (+10%) | -$126 | -$137 | -$169 | -$315 |
| $193 (+15%) | -$221 | -$251 | -$312 | -$461 |
| $201 (+20%) | -$306 | -$348 | -$421 | -$543 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.