Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.6% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $150 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$640 (47.1%) on $1,360 risked, vs $-1,785 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 4.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $150 by Jun 19
+$640
+47.1% on $1,360 risked
Max Profit
+$15,640
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,360
Premium paid
Break-even
$156.40
-6.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.66 / -9.39 / 27.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | +$2,220 | +$2,184 | +$2,176 | +$2,212 |
| $143 (-15%) | +$1,515 | +$1,432 | +$1,365 | +$1,373 |
| $150 (-11%) โ target | +$961 | +$835 | +$701 | +$640 |
| $159 (-5%) | +$346 | +$173 | -$44 | -$306 |
| $164 (-2%) | +$67 | -$121 | -$369 | -$809 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | -$100 | -$295 | -$555 | -$1,145 |
| $171 (+2%) | -$252 | -$451 | -$716 | -$1,360 |
| $176 (+5%) | -$454 | -$653 | -$913 | -$1,360 |
| $185 (+10%) | -$725 | -$910 | -$1,134 | -$1,360 |
| $193 (+15%) | -$926 | -$1,085 | -$1,256 | -$1,360 |
| $201 (+20%) | -$1,070 | -$1,198 | -$1,316 | -$1,360 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.